Everglades Foundation develops early-warning system for red tide

WGCU, October 3, 2025

The Everglades Foundation has developed an early-warning system for red tide blooms in Southwest Florida, which has been able to forecast dangerous outbreaks of Karenia brevis with up to 84 percent accuracy.

The models use a machine-learning algorithm to crunch a large amount of real-time environmental data from red tide samples, satellite imagery of Florida’s west coast, ocean buoys, and river gauges to forecast the “worst” area, if any, expected across the greater Charlotte Harbor region during the following week, and a second forecast looks out four weeks.

Red tide not only fouls the region’s beaches with decaying dead fish, it emits toxins that can trigger respiratory problems in humans. The poisons can also accumulate in shellfish, making them dangerous to eat.

Paul Julian is an aquatic ecologist with the foundation and a member of the team developing the warning system. He said, for now, their data will be shared with agencies doing public predictions of red tide and other algal bloom activity, such as the Florida Department of Environmental Protection and the South Florida Water Management Agency.

“Southwest Florida is linked to its environment, and so being able to understand when person X doesn't want to, say, go fishing tomorrow because red tides out there, and it's probably going to get worse, I think in the future, there's going to be multiple, multiple end users of the of it.

The foundation’s algorithm, developed with researchers from ECCO Scientific, takes into account samples as small as nitrate levels by the Franklin Locks on the Caloosahatchee River, to as large as the location of the Loop Current in the Gulf. Read WGCU's full article here: https://www.wgcu.org/environment/2025-10-03/everglades-foundation-develops-early-warning-system-for-red-tide

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