A New Forecast Model Predicts Red Tide Conditions Along Florida's West Coast
- Miles Medina, Ph.D.
- 4 hours ago
- 3 min read
August 8, 2025
What if we could see red tide coming – weeks before it hits? A model created by ECCO Scientific and The Everglades Foundation uses environmental data to predict bloom severity along Florida's southwest coast weeks in advance. With up to 84% accuracy, it gives officials and the public time to protect public health and ecosystems before red tide hits.
By Miles Medina, Ph.D., ECCO Scientific, President and Lead Author
The Everglades Foundation’s science team and ECCO Scientific have launched the first early-warning forecast system for red tide conditions along the southwest Florida coast, covering the Greater Charlotte Harbor area from Venice south to Estero Bay. Every Sunday, two models forecast red tide conditions to be expected over the next week and over the next four weeks, using real-time environmental data. The accuracy and effectiveness of the forecast system was analyzed in a 2024 Harmful Algae study by The Everglades Foundation and ECCO Scientific. The weekly forecasts now warn environmental managers and the public when red tide conditions are imminent.
What is red tide and how does it affect southwest Florida?
Red tides appear on the southwest Florida coast nearly every year, typically starting around September or October. The red tide organism, a microscopic form of algae called Karenia brevis, produces a neurotoxin that kills fish and other marine wildlife. In addition to disrupting the ecology of the area, the toxin also presents public health risks: Eating shellfish contaminated by the neurotoxin can land you in the hospital, and when the neurotoxin gets into the air, it causes respiratory illness up to several kilometers inland from the coast. These impacts can translate into billions of dollars in losses to the local economy, particularly in the tourism, fishing, and real estate sectors.
Red tide blooms first form offshore of Florida’s west coast. Under the right conditions, they are carried toward the southwest Florida coast by ocean currents, and nutrient-rich waters along the coast can sustain, prolong, and intensify the blooms. These nutrients come from a variety of sources both natural and man-made, including runoff and waste from our cities and farms, as well as releases from Lake Okeechobee.
How will weekly red tide forecasts help protect nearby communities?
The new weekly forecasts will provide environmental managers, scientists, and the public with advance notice of red tide conditions to inform prevention and mitigation efforts. For example, the forecasts will enable the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to avoid releasing nutrient-rich water from the Caloosahatchee River to the coast when a bloom is imminent, and timely public advisories and shellfish harvesting closures will protect the public from neurotoxin exposure. The recent grand opening of the Caloosahatchee River (C-43) Reservoir marks a step toward mitigating these harmful, nutrient-polluted discharges.
How were red tide forecast models developed, and when did they begin operating?
Development of the forecast models was led by ECCO Scientific, a small environmental research and consulting firm in Florida, with collaboration from The Everglades Foundation's science team. The models use a machine learning algorithm to crunch a large amount of real-time environmental data from red tide samples, satellite imagery of Florida’s west coast, ocean buoys, and river gauges. Each week, the forecasts predict the “worst” red tide category (Background, Very Low, Low, Medium, or High) that is expected across the Greater Charlotte Harbor area over the next week and over the next four weeks. During testing, the forecasts achieved up to 84% accuracy and typically anticipated the onset of new blooms before they appeared.
Weekly forecasting became operational in June 2025, and to date, the forecasts have predicted “Background” red tide conditions each week. We expect to see the first forecasts of bloom conditions in the early fall as we approach this year’s red tide season.
This model and study were authored by Dr. Miles Medina, ECCO Scientific President, The Everglades Foundation's Biogeochemist, Dr. Paul Julian and Chief Science Officer, Dr. Steve Davis, and Nicholas Chin, Ph.D. student at the University of Florida.
Read the full study here:
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